Advanced Intelligence Analysis
(The LAMP Method)

Understanding the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP)

How LAMP overcomes the shortfalls of older analytical systems

What are the problems with older analytic systems?

In the simplest terms, legacy analytic methods fail intelligence analysts because they model process, not people. But they still offered the best that could be done until today's advancements:

• The Delphi method aggregates expert opinion while ignoring the adversary’s decision calculus, delivering consensus without insight into who will actually act, when, or why.

• Analysis of Competing Hypotheses traps living, adaptive actors inside static hypothesis boxes, stripping away agency, choice, and strategic creativity.

• Indicators & Warning frameworks focus on observable signals rather than decision-makers, virtually guaranteeing surprise when real actors deliberately deceive, innovate, or change course.

How does LAMP correct these problems?

LAMP reverses these failures by treating adversaries as purposeful decision-makers first—reconstructing how specific actors perceive options, evaluate risk, and choose action—so analysts forecast behavior, not just trends.

This guidebook draws on my direct training under LAMP’s creator to show how actor-driven analysis outperforms traditional forecasting.

It was originally released in 2010 and distributed by several organizations, but I have made some important updates. I have detailed not only how LAMP works, but now, also its practical challenges—especially the explosion of alternate futures—and how I have addressed these challenges through structured workflows and computerization for generating, filtering, and ranking scenarios. I have included full computer scripts (with a screenshot).

This booklet blends tradecraft, real analytic experience, and modern tools to offer a practical, insider’s guide to producing credible, decision-ready intelligence in complex, high-stakes environments.

What intelligence analysts will get from this manual:

• A clear, plain-language understanding of the LAMP method and why it matters.

• Insight into how LAMP differs from—and improves upon—traditional quantitative forecasting methods.

• Practical explanations of LAMP’s 12-step process and how it is applied in real-world analysis.

• An honest discussion of LAMP’s key challenges, including the explosion of alternate futures.

• Concrete solutions for managing complexity using computerization, automation, and full analytical scripts with a screenshot.

• Examples of how to generate, filter, and rank 'alternate futures' systematically.

• My insider’s perspective gained from my direct training under LAMP’s creator, Dr. Jonathan Lockwood.

• Guidance on producing intelligence that is credible, defensible, and decision-ready for policymakers.

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