Projects

These projects exemplify our approach to advanced intelligence analysis and strategic foresight:

• The Question of a Coup: Applying Calculus in Intelligence Calculations
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• National Socio-Digital Early Warning and Strategic Foresight Architecture
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• Understanding the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP)
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• The Self-Disruption Project
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• Intelligence Training Manual: Self-Disruption as Analytic Tradecraft
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• Classified-Style Analytic Vignettes and Tradecraft Alignment

My work—largely collaborative—uses qualitative and quantitative data, along with computer-assisted analysis, to examine complex systems and emerging trends affecting organizations and society. The goal is to identify risks, disruptions, and opportunities that inform better decision-making in high-stakes contexts with long-term security and growth implications.

Selected projects

The Question of a Coup: Applying Calculus in Intelligence Calculations

• A practical intelligence manual showing how calculus-based reasoning can prevent false certainty, expose hidden coordination, and reduce strategic surprise in coup analysis | Go >>

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The National Early Warning System

• Many of the most dangerous threats to 21st-century governments no longer emerge from military barracks or battlefields, but from computer keyboards and cell phones—where narratives (including false narratives) spread like a wild fire, emotions mobilize, and revolutions take shape before a single soldier moves. The Arab Spring of the early 2010s revealed a fatal blind spot: states could monitor weapons and crowds, but not the narratives, emotions, and cascading belief shifts that ignite unrest. This project responds to that gap by building a computational intelligence ecosystem—a national immune system—designed to detect, model, and prevent instability before it erupts | Go >>

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• An innovative, purpose-built set of structured analytical exercises aligned with IC and NATO tradecraft standards that demonstrate how analysts can proactively challenge their own assumptions and methodologies within a professional intelligence framework
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• A practical intelligence tradecraft guide for identifying and mitigating unconscious bias through structured self-disruption integrated into analytic workflows | Go >>

Understanding the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP)

• Download this free booklet where I draw on my direct training under LAMP’s creator, Col. Jonathan S. Lockwood, PhD (U.S. Army, Ret.), to explain how this actor-driven intelligence analysis method overcomes the limits of traditional forecasting. I detail not only how LAMP works, but also its practical challenges—especially the explosion of alternate futures—and how I have addressed them through structured workflows, full computer scripts, and automation for generating, filtering, and ranking scenarios. This booklet blends tradecraft, real analytic experience, and modern tools to offer a practical, insider’s guide to producing credible, decision-ready intelligence in complex, high-stakes environments | Go >>

Intelligence Training

Classified-Style Intelligence Analysis Vignettes and Tradecraft Alignment

• This was a highly unusual application of Whitney Johnson's four principles of self-disruption to the unconscious bias problem in intelligence analysis | Go >>

The Self-Disruption Project

More info >>

Non-intelligence projects:

• Top 20 mistakes immigrant healthcare professionals make

• The Honda revolution project

• A portrayal and analysis of how customer mistreatment elsewhere ignited customer loyalty for Honda | Go >>

• Top 20 mistakes immigrant healthcare professionals make | Go >>

Immigrants' Mistakes

The Honda Revolution Project