Projects

My projects (most of which are collaborative) use data and computer-assisted analysis to understand complex systems and new trends that affect organizations and society. My work helps identify risks, disruptions, and opportunities so organizational and public leaders can make better decisions in high-stakes situations that affect long-term security.

Selected projects:

These projects exemplify our approach to advanced intelligence analysis and strategic foresight:

• National socio-digital early warning and strategic foresight architecture

• The self-disruption project

• Intelligence training manual: Self-disruption as analytic tradecraft

• Classified-style analytic vignettes and tradecraft alignment

The National Early Warning System

• Many of the most dangerous threats to 21st-century governments no longer emerge from military barracks or battlefields, but from computer keyboards and cell phones—where narratives (including false narratives) spread like a wild fire, emotions mobilize, and revolutions take shape before a single soldier moves. The Arab Spring of the early 2010s revealed a fatal blind spot: states could monitor weapons and crowds, but not the narratives, emotions, and cascading belief shifts that ignite unrest. This project responds to that gap by building a computational intelligence ecosystem—a national immune system—designed to detect, model, and prevent instability before it erupts | Go >>

• An innovative, purpose-built set of structured analytical exercises aligned with IC and NATO tradecraft standards that demonstrate how analysts can proactively challenge their own assumptions and methodologies within a professional intelligence framework | Go >>

• A practical intelligence tradecraft guide for identifying and mitigating unconscious bias through structured self-disruption integrated into analytic workflows | Go >>

Understanding the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP)

• Download this free booklet where I draw on my direct training under LAMP’s creator, Col. Jonathan S. Lockwood, PhD (U.S. Army, Ret.), to explain how this actor-driven intelligence analysis method overcomes the limits of traditional forecasting. I detail not only how LAMP works, but also its practical challenges—especially the explosion of alternate futures—and how I have addressed them through structured workflows, full computer scripts, and automation for generating, filtering, and ranking scenarios. This booklet blends tradecraft, real analytic experience, and modern tools to offer a practical, insider’s guide to producing credible, decision-ready intelligence in complex, high-stakes environments. | Go >>

Intelligence Training

Classified-Style Intelligence Analysis Vignettes and Tradecraft Alignment

• This was a highly unusual application of Whitney Johnson's four principles of self-disruption to the unconscious bias problem in intelligence analysis | Go >>

The Self-Disruption Project

Non-intelligence projects:

• Top 20 mistakes immigrant healthcare professionals make

• The Honda revolution project

• A portrayal and analysis of how customer mistreatment elsewhere ignited customer loyalty for Honda | Go >>

• Top 20 mistakes immigrant healthcare professionals make | Go >>

Immigrants' Mistakes

The Honda Revolution Project