Applying Calculus in Intelligence Calculations
(The Question of a Coup)

Coups in Africa

Let's examine some well-documented coups in Africa where post-event investigations, memoirs, and expert analyses exactly show the slow-burn patterns of coups:

Elite whispers
Performative loyalty
Silence from insiders, and
Danger being misjudged rather than unseen.

Here are specific, widely studied cases, with the pattern made explicit:

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Mali

Nigeria

Burkina Faso

Zimbabwe

Sudan

Guinea

Niger

Ghana

AI-generated image. The image of the military officer is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent any real person or country.

Burkina Faso

The Sept 2022 Coup (Capt. Ibrahim Traoré removes Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba)

Capt. Ibrahim Traoré, president of Burkina Faso

Image by RIA Novosti archive, image #/CC-BY-SA 3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0

Key veto/force nodes:

Lower/mid-ranking officer networks (the internal veto player).
State media/broadcast control for legitimacy performance.

What Damiba believed:

That seizing power bought time and unity in the officer corps.
That the junta’s security agenda and hierarchy would hold.

What was actually happening:

Reuters quotes the ousters saying they tried “several times” to refocus Damiba—classic internal warning signals that were acknowledged but not resolved, until they became regime-ending.
Scholarly analysis notes the second coup “did not come as a surprise” because frustration in the ranks persisted amid worsening attacks—i.e., the drift was visible; it was mismanaged.

President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré Overthrown; Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba rises)

Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, former president of Burkina Faso

Key veto/force nodes:

Disaffected military units under insurgency stress.
Security command structure claiming authority to “restore” state capacity.

What the civilian leadership believed:

That security deterioration could be managed politically (cabinet changes, messaging, partial reforms).
That the military would remain an instrument, not a veto player.

What was actually happening:

Reuters is explicit: the army justified takeover by citing deteriorating security and failure to respond effectively—meaning the “insecurity grievance” was both real and politically mobilizing inside the force node.

The 2015 failed coup against the transitional government

Soldiers of Regiment of Presidential Security in Ouagadougou during the 2015 Burkinabé coup d'état

Before the coup:

Members of the elite presidential guard maintained formal obedience while signaling resentment through non-cooperation and strategic ambiguity.
Political actors assumed institutional continuity would restrain the guard.

After the coup (as analysts noted):

Courtesy without commitment—handshakes without loyalty.
The transitional leadership underestimated how far loyalties had already shifted.

Common patterns in the coups

Across these cases, experts consistently identify the same sequence:

Elite discontent becomes private, not public
Rituals of loyalty continue, but substance disappears
Advisers hedge, delay, or fall silent
Leaders mistake formality for fidelity
The coup appears sudden—only in retrospect

One day an administration stands; the next, it is gone.

This is why many coup experts argue that coups are not shocks but revelations: the moment when invisible shifts finally become undeniable.

Other Countries

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About the tool book

This free introductory manual starts where conventional intelligence analysis grows uncomfortable—and grinds to a screeching halt—and that is, sophisticated mathematics. No one likes maths, but it's maths that saves the day, every day. This manual takes a turn most intelligence analysts never expect: Calculus. This is not just equations; it's not academic maths, but a discipline designed to reason under uncertainty, thresholds, and hidden coordination.

Yes, many intelligence failures are driven less by missing information and more by a false sense of certainty.

Calculus accounts for what you do not know! In this case, calculus may be the missing tool leaders never realized they needed.

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What intelligence analysts will get from this manual:

A disciplined way to treat coup risk as a continuously evolving process rather than a binary outcome.
A method for preventing repeated signals from masquerading as independent confirmation
Practical tools for integrating noisy, incomplete, and deceptive intelligence without forcing premature conclusions.
A calculus-based framework for handling hidden coordination, thresholds, and nonlinear escalation.
Protection against false certainty created by consensus, narrative dominance, or analytic momentum.
Clear guidance on when confidence is warranted, conditional, or unjustified.
An approach that strengthens judgment without replacing experience or tradecraft.
Techniques for briefing senior leaders that explain not just what you assess, but why that level of confidence exists.
Earlier warning without alarmism, even when visible indicators remain weak.
A way to stay analytically ahead of surprise rather than explaining it afterward.