Applying Calculus in Intelligence Calculations
(The Question of a Coup)

Calculus: The Discipline Intelligence Keeps Ignoring

About the guidebook

Coups still terrify national leaders. They are sudden, political, and extraordinarily dangerous. They begin as rumors and elite whispers, as quiet shifts in loyalty and unexplained silences—then power vanishes overnight. Governments rarely fall because no one saw danger; they fall because danger was misjudged until it is too late. One day an administration stands; the next, it is gone.

This manual starts where conventional intelligence analysis grows comfortable—and stops. Then it takes a turn most analysts never expect: Calculus. Not equations, not academic maths, but a discipline designed to reason under uncertainty, thresholds, and hidden coordination. If intelligence failures are driven less by missing information than by false certainty, calculus may be the missing tool leaders never realized they needed.

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What intelligence analysts will get from this manual:

• A disciplined way to treat coup risk as a continuously evolving process rather than a binary outcome.

• A method for preventing repeated signals from masquerading as independent confirmation

  Practical tools for integrating noisy, incomplete, and deceptive intelligence without forcing premature conclusions.

• A calculus-based framework for handling hidden coordination, thresholds, and nonlinear escalation.

• Protection against false certainty created by consensus, narrative dominance, or analytic momentum.

• Clear guidance on when confidence is warranted, conditional, or unjustified.

• An approach that strengthens judgment without replacing experience or tradecraft.

• Techniques for briefing senior leaders that explain not just what you assess, but why that level of confidence exists.

• Earlier warning without alarmism, even when visible indicators remain weak.

• A way to stay analytically ahead of surprise rather than explaining it afterward.

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Explore our other recent projects:

• The Question of a Coup: Applying Calculus in Intelligence Calculations: A practical intelligence manual showing how calculus-based reasoning can prevent false certainty, expose hidden coordination, and reduce strategic surprise in coup analysis.

• National socio-digital early warning and strategic foresight architecture: a computational intelligence ecosystem to anticipate mass sentiment shifts before coordinated unrest and destabilization emerge.

• Understanding the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP): my firsthand experience applying one of the intelligence community’s most rigorous forecasting methodologies.

• Self-disruption research: Applied Whitney Johnson's four principles of self-disruption in addressing unconscious bias among intelligence analysts.

• Intelligence training manual: Self-disruption as analytic tradecraft

• Self-disruption as analytic tradecraft: Classified-style analytic vignettes and tradecraft alignment

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